Metrics for Assessing Earthquake‐Hazard Map Performance

Abstract

Research Article| July 21, 2015 Metrics for Assessing Earthquake‐Hazard Map Performance Seth Stein; Seth Stein aDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Bruce D. Spencer; Bruce D. Spencer bDepartment of Statistics, Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Edward M. Brooks Edward M. Brooks aDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Seth Stein aDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208 Bruce D. Spencer bDepartment of Statistics, Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208 Edward M. Brooks aDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208 Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 14 Jul 2017 Online ISSN: 1943-3573 Print ISSN: 0037-1106 Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2015) 105 (4): 2160–2173. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140164 Article history First Online: 14 Jul 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email Permissions Search Site Citation Seth Stein, Bruce D. Spencer, Edward M. Brooks; Metrics for Assessing Earthquake‐Hazard Map Performance. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2015;; 105 (4): 2160–2173. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140164 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyBulletin of the Seismological Society of America Search Advanced Search Abstract Recent large earthquakes that caused great damage in areas predicted to be relatively safe, illustrate the importance of criteria that assess how well earthquake hazard maps used to develop codes for earthquake‐resistant construction are actually performing. At present, there is no agreed‐upon way of assessing how well a map performed and thus determining whether one map performed better than another. The fractional site exceedance metric implicit in current maps, that during the chosen time interval the predicted ground motion will be exceeded only at a specific fraction of the sites, is useful but permits maps to be nominally successful even if they significantly underpredict or overpredict shaking, or permits them to be nominally unsuccessful but do well in terms of predicting shaking. We explore some possible metrics that better measure the effects of overprediction and underprediction and can be weighted to reflect the two differently and to reflect differences in populations and property at risk. Although no single metric alone fully characterizes map behavior, using several metrics can provide useful insight for comparing and improving hazard maps. For example, both probabilistic and deterministic hazard maps for Italy dramatically overpredict the recorded shaking in a 2200‐yr‐long historical intensity catalog, illustrating problems in the data (most likely), models, or both. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.