Energy and Food

Abstract

Available data on energy use in the world food system are assessed, and needed energy inputs for the future are projected. The amount of energy required to produce the world's food depends on the amount of available land and water, as well as on the size of the population. The world's population is expected to double during the next 37 years. During this interval, energy requirements for the world food system are expected to increase from the current 25% to 35-40% of each year's total energy use. Declining soil fertility, increased need for irrigation, and diminishing returns from additional fertilizer are expected to account for the increased need for energy. Considerable additional energy and materials are required to produce the capital equipment--farm machinery, fertilizer and chemical factories, oil tankers, refineries, railroads, trucks, highways, etc.--necessary for increased world use of energy-intensive agriculture. Whether this equipment can be assembled soon enough in the 37-year population-doubling time to be effective is, of course, another question. In India, for example, lead time in construction and starting of fertilizer plants has averaged 5 years. Furthermore, new plants in Asia have generally operated at an average of only 60% of planned capacity, due to inadequate electricitymore » supplies, inefficient plant design, and ''difficulties with management and labor.'' Increasing food production to feed the estimated half-billion malnourished people alive today, as well as to provide for expected increases in population, will require that agricultural production be intensified. The increased production will have to come from the less-developed countries, rather than from the developed countries with industrialized agriculture, and this increase must come mostly from increased energy inputs. 1 figure, 14 tables, 103 references.« less