Inoperability Input-Output Model for Interdependent Infrastructure Sectors. I: Theory and Methodology

TLDR

Leontief’s input‑output framework, widely documented by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, provides the foundational economic interdependency structure for the study. The paper develops the theory and methodology for an inoperability input‑output model (IIM) that quantifies sectoral ripple effects from disruptions. The IIM extends Leontief’s model to simulate initial disruptions, dynamic recovery trajectories, and to prioritize critical sectors at national or regional levels.

Abstract

The paper discusses the theory and methodology supporting the development of the inoperability input-output model (IIM). The IIM is based on Leontief’s input-output model, which characterizes interdependencies among sectors in the economy and analyzes initial disruptions to a set of sectors and the resulting ripple effects. An advantage of building on Leontief’s model is that it is supported by publications of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Independent computer runs of the IIM can represent the entire nation or sectors within particular U.S. regions. A dynamic extension of the IIM analyzes different temporal frames of recovery and characterizes the required sector adjustments for achieving new production levels. The IIM can systemically prioritize and manage the sectors deemed to be economically critical and also identify those sectors whose continued operability is critical during recovery. A companion paper demonstrates applying the IIM to attacks on electric power and telecommunications.