Evolution of Analysis Error and Adjoint-Based Sensitivities: Implications for Adaptive Observations

Abstract

The structure and evolution of analysis error and adjoint-based sensitivities [potential enstrophy initial singular vectors (SVs) and gradient sensitivities of the forecast error to initial conditions] are compared following a cyclone development in a three-dimensional quasigeostrophic channel model. The results show that the projection of the evolved SV onto the forecast error increases during the evolution.