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Campaign disconnect: operational progress and strategic obstacles in Afghanistan, 2009-2011
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2011
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Success in war hinges on aligning operations with strategy, a process that requires time for civilian and military leaders to assess effectiveness and adjust actions to meet strategic goals. The article evaluates the prospects of the US‑led campaign in Afghanistan. Field research shows operational gains in counterinsurgency, Afghan security forces, sub‑national governance, and military momentum, yet strategic challenges—corruption, NATO war‑weariness, and Pakistani insurgent safe havens—create a disconnect that cannot be resolved by ISAF alone, meaning operational progress alone will not secure victory.
Success in war depends on alignment between operations and strategy. Commonly, such alignment takes time as civilian and military leaders assess the effectiveness of operations and adjust them to ensure that strategic objectives are achieved. This article assesses prospects for the US-led campaign in Afghanistan. Drawing on extensive field research, the authors find that significant progress has been made at the operational level in four key areas: the approach to counterinsurgency operations, development of Afghan security forces, growth of Afghan sub-national governance and military momentum on the ground. However, the situation is bleak at the strategic level. The article identifies three strategic obstacles to campaign success: corruption in Afghan national government, war-weariness in NATO countries and insurgent safe havens in Pakistan. These strategic problems require political developments that are beyond the capabilities of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). In other words, further progress at the operational level will not bring 'victory'. It concludes, therefore, that there is an operational-strategic disconnect at the heart of the ISAF campaign.