Using a Climate Index to Measure Crop Yield Response

Abstract

Using principal component analysis, a climate index is developed to estimate the linkage between climate and crop yields. The indices based on three climate projections are then applied to forecast future crop yield responses. We identify spatial heterogeneity of crop yield responses to future climate change across a number of U.S. northern and southern states. The results indicate that future hotter/drier weather conditions will likely have significant negative impacts on southern states, whereas only mild impacts are expected in most northern states.