Lifetime and Age-Conditional Probabilities of Developing or Dying of Cancer in Japan

Abstract

The concepts of lifetime and age-conditional probabilities of developing and dying of cancer are introduced as indexes to understand the risk of cancer. In this paper, we estimated the lifetime and age-conditional probabilities of developing and dying of cancer in 2001 and 2005, respectively, in Japan. It is estimated that one in two Japanese males and one in three females will develop cancer, and one in four Japanese males and one in six females will die of cancer. Moreover, the probabilities of developing cancer within specific decades of age are obtained as the short-term risks.