Time sequential distribution system reliability worth analysis considering time varying load and cost models

Abstract

This paper presents a time sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique for evaluating customer unreliability costs in distribution systems. Annual chronological load models for different individual customer sectors are developed and used in the analysis. Random load fluctuations are combined with the time varying load models to recognize the residual uncertainty associated with system load. The concept of time varying cost weight factors is introduced. The customer damage function (CDF) is combined with the time varying cost weight factors to create a time varying cost model (TVCM) for each individual customer. The TVCM for seven customer sectors are developed and used in the evaluation. The results show that different load and cost models result in different interruption costs which can lead to different planning and operating decisions.