Country-level assessment of long-term global bioenergy potential

TLDR

Biomass is projected to play a role in long‑term energy scenarios, yet it is unlikely to replace the majority of fossil fuel use across all sectors, with 2010 global energy consumption at 365 EJ final energy (530 EJ primary). Improving the understanding of the sustainable and realistic potential for biomass is crucial. We present a comprehensive, country‑based, bottom‑up assessment of land‑based global biofuel potential, considering scenarios with varying yield gradients, land‑use change, and technology development for lignocellulosic and food crops, as well as residues, and we analyze food‑crop‑based biofuels in addition to lignocellulosic sources. The assessment projects global biofuel supply to rise from 15–70 EJ of final transport fuel energy (30–140 EJ primary) today to 40–190 EJ (130–400 EJ primary) by 2070, with more than three‑quarters derived from energy crops—up to 70 % from food crops and at least 10 % from lignocellulosic sources—while residues supply the remainder, and country‑level dynamics could make Brazil or Russia net exporters and India or Nigeria net importers.

Abstract

Most long-term global energy scenarios rely on biomass for a variety of possible uses, but there is unlikely to be enough to replace the majority of fossil fuel use in all sectors. Improving the understanding of the sustainable and realistic potential for biomass is crucial. We present a comprehensive, country-based, bottom-up assessment of the land-based global biofuel (bioethanol and biodiesel) potential, taking into account a range of scenarios with varying yield gradients, land-use change and technology development, covering energy from both lignocellulosic and food crops as well as residues from agriculture and forestry. We have also gone beyond many other studies by analysing the potential for food crop based biofuels as well as lignocellulosic-sourced biofuels. We find a global biofuel supply potential increasing from 15–70 EJ final transport fuel energy (30–140 EJ primary energy) currently to 40–190 EJ (130–400 EJ) in 2070, depending on the development of land-use, productivity and technology mix. Over 3/4 of this potential comes from energy crops: up to 70% could come from food crops and at least 10% from lignocellulosic crops. The remaining quarter would be from agricultural and forestry residues. For comparison, current (2010) total global energy use (fuel, heat and electricity) stands at 365 EJ final energy (530 EJ primary energy). Depending on demand developments, countries such as Brazil or Russia could become net bioenergy exporters in the second half of the century, while others, such as India or Nigeria, may become net importers.