Why risk analysis outperforms probabilistic choice as the effective decision support paradigm for power system planning

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that a classical stochastic optimization is, in many cases, not convenient for power system planning. Instead, a risk analysis approach is proposed. In a comparison of both planning paradigms, the probabilistic approach is in occasions not adequate, is half blind to compromise solutions and leads, in numerous, cases to riskier decisions. The technical discussion is illustrated with a distribution planning example.