Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

TLDR

Ecological shifts in phenology and distribution across marine, freshwater, and terrestrial taxa are increasingly aligned with global warming predictions, as shown by climate–biological correlations, experiments, and physiological studies. Range‑restricted species, especially polar and mountaintop taxa, have suffered severe contractions and the first extinctions, while tropical coral reefs and amphibians are most negatively impacted; altered predator‑prey and plant‑insect interactions, rapid evolutionary changes at range margins, and limited genetic shifts have been observed, but these adaptations appear insufficient to offset species‑level losses.

Abstract

Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups. These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research. Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change. Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected. Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming. Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species' ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins. Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level.