Measures of potential output: an application to Israel

Abstract

This paper estimates measures of potential output for Israel, with the aim of providing evidence on whether the recent growth slowdown is principally a cyclical slowdown or a structural shift towards a slower growth path after the dramatic developments associated with the years of heavy immigration. Israel poses a challenge because traditional methods of measuring potential output assume relatively stable conditions over an extended period of time. Five methodologies are employed to derive estimates and it is found that four of the measures imply the slowdown stems largely from reduced growth of potential output rather than a cyclical slowdown.