Population Change and Migration in Britain since 1981: Evidence for Continuing Deconcentration

TLDR

The counterurbanisation decade of the 1970s was followed by mixed migration trends between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. The study examines Britain’s migration patterns relative to other countries and highlights questions for future research using the 1991 Census. The author uses British Census small‑area statistics and annual population estimates to calculate 1981‑91 local labour‑market area growth rates, test for deconcentration, and analyse migration trends since the 1960s. Results show that while the gap between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan growth narrowed in the 1980s, the negative urban‑status relationship persisted, and Britain experienced a mid‑1980s resurgence of nonmetropolitan growth affecting the whole country.

Abstract

The counterurbanisation decade of the 1970s appears to have been followed by a period of more mixed trends in migration between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. This author examines the experience of Great Britain against the background of developments reported for other countries. The British Census small-area statistics are used to calculate 1981–91 rates of population change for a typology of local labour-market areas in order to test for the existence of population deconcentration, and the results are compared with the rates for the three previous intercensal decades. Annual population estimates are then used to examine the migration component of 1981–91 population change and to investigate the extent and timing of fluctuations in growth rates since the early 1960s. The results indicate that the differentials in the population growth rate between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan Britain narrowed somewhat between the 1970s and the 1980s, but the negative relationship between urban status and population change remained very clear. Moreover, contrary to the experience of the USA and a number of European countries, in the mid-1980s Britain saw a resurgence of nonmetropolitan growth which had widespread impact across the country. These results raise questions which can in part be addressed by in-depth research on the 1991 Census and related data sets.