Prediction of violence using the HCR-20: a prospective study in two maximum-security correctional institutions

TLDR

The study aimed to test the validity of the HCR‑20 and PCL:SV for predicting institutional violence. The authors conducted a prospective study of 41 long‑term offenders in two maximum‑security institutions, assessing them with the HCR‑20 and PCL:SV via file review and 1–3‑hour clinical interviews, and followed them for an average of 8 months. The HCR‑20’s clinical and risk‑management items had high predictive validity, while historical items did not, indicating that violence in maximum‑security institutions can be predicted with reasonable accuracy using the HCR‑20 and PCL:SV even among a high‑risk offender group. Keywords: risk prediction, institutional violence, HCR‑20.

Abstract

Abstract The HCR-20 and the PCL:SV were used in a prospective study of 41 long-term sentenced offenders in two correctional, maximum-security institutions. The aim was to test the validity of these instruments in the prediction of institutional violence. All assessments were made by a comprehensive examination of the offenders' files, completed with clinical interviews ranging from 1 to 3 hours. The mean follow-up time was 8 months. Our results show high predictive validity for the HCR-20's clinical and risk management items, but for almost none of its historical items. The results suggest that violence inside correctional institutions can be predicted with a certain degree of validity by using the HCR-20 and the PCL:SV, even within a selective 'high-risk' group of offenders such as that under study here. Keywords: Risk PredictionInstitutional ViolenceHcr-20