American Journal of Public Health · 2013 · 283 citations · 38 references
Public HealthPharmacologyControlled Substance PolicySubstance Use DisordersSubstance Use PreventionDrug Overdose PreventionMedication-assisted TreatmentOpioid PolicyOverdose PreventionPharmacoepidemiologySubstance Abuse PreventionArchival MethodologyBuprenorphine TreatmentDrug Use EpidemiologyLinear RegressionLongitudinal Time Series AnalysisOpioid Agonist Therapy PoliciesOpioid Use EpidemiologyOpioid-related Mortality
OBJECTIVES: We examined the association between the expansion of methadone and buprenorphine treatment and the prevalence of heroin overdose deaths in Baltimore, Maryland from 1995 to 2009. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal time series analysis of archival data using linear regression with the Newey-West method to correct SEs for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation, adjusting for average heroin purity. RESULTS: Overdose deaths attributed to heroin ranged from a high of 312 in 1999 to a low of 106 in 2008. While mean heroin purity rose sharply (1995-1999), the increasing number of patients treated with methadone was not associated with a change in the number of overdose deaths, but starting in 2000 expansion of opioid agonist treatment was associated with a decline in overdose deaths. Adjusting for heroin purity and the number of methadone patients, there was a statistically significant inverse relationship between heroin overdose deaths and patients treated with buprenorphine (P = .002). CONCLUSIONS: Increased access to opioid agonist treatment was associated with a reduction in heroin overdose deaths. Implementing policies that support evidence-based medication treatment of opiate dependence may decrease heroin overdose deaths.
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Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control
Beat Kleiner, G. E. P. Box, G. J. Jenkins · Technometrics · 1977 · 3.8K citations
Computing, Data Science, Forecasting +11
Loss of tolerance and overdose mortality after inpatient opiate detoxification: follow up study
John Strang, Jim McCambridge, David Best et al. · BMJ · 2003 · 336 citations · Full text