An Empirical Test of Butler's Resort Product Life Cycle: Forecasting Casino Winnings

Abstract

This article presents a product life cycle and forecasting methodology for both emerging and established casino markets. Gross gaming revenues and win per square foot per day were forecasted using classical time-series decomposition with polynomial regression. The model supports the position that casinos conform to Butler's S-shaped product life cycle for resorts, suggesting that the rapid increases in early-period gaming revenues will not continue without intervention to rejuvenate the industry.