Snow cover and permafrost evolution in Siberia as simulated by the MGO regional climate model in the 20th and 21st centuries

Abstract

An approach to ground thermodynamics description using a coupled system of atmospheric regional climate and ground heat transfer models is improved by accounting for the time varying snow density. The simulations are compared to available observational analyses, and the sensitivity of the ground thermal regime to variable snow density is analysed. Projected changes of the ground thermal regime in the 21st century relative to the late 20th century are shown and compared to earlier estimates.