Changes in Virologic Markers as Predictors of CD4 Cell Decline and Progression of Disease in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1‐Infected Adults Treated with Nucleosides

Abstract

The associations of CD4 cell count, plasma human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 RNA, infectious HIV titer in peripheral blood mononuclear cells, immune complex-disrupted (ICD) p24 antigen, and MT-2 assays with measures of disease progression after drug treatment were assessed in a subset of patients enrolled in AIDS Clinical Trials Group Study 175. Baseline plasma RNA levels and changes in RNA values at weeks 8 or 56 were more important predictors of disease progression than were baseline or changes in CD4 cell counts. Each 10-fold lower HIV RNA concentration at baseline and each 10-fold decrease in HIV RNA between baseline and week 8 was associated with increases of 49-61 CD4 cells/mm3 at weeks 56 and 104. In multivariate analyses, neither baseline values nor changes in infectious HIV titer nor ICD p24 antigen concentrations were associated with long-term changes in CD4 cell count. Plasma HIV-1 RNA appears to be the best predictor of long-term CD4 cell count responses and disease progression.