Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards: the Disaster Risk Index

TLDR

Assessing which countries are most at risk requires considering hazards such as droughts, floods, cyclones, and earthquakes. The paper presents a model of factors influencing global human losses from natural hazards (1980–2000) and was designed for the UNDP as a building block of the Disaster Risk Index to monitor risk evolution. The model uses GIS to map four hazards, overlays them with population distribution to extract exposure, then crosses exposure with socio‑economic parameters to assess vulnerability, and evaluates how past losses relate to exposure and vulnerability. Results show that human vulnerability is largely tied to a country’s development level and environmental quality, and the model offers a country classification and data‑improvement recommendations. Abstract.

Abstract

Abstract. This paper presents a model of factors influencing levels of human losses from natural hazards at the global scale, for the period 1980–2000. This model was designed for the United Nations Development Programme as a building stone of the Disaster Risk Index (DRI), which aims at monitoring the evolution of risk. Assessing what countries are most at risk requires considering various types of hazards, such as droughts, floods, cyclones and earthquakes. Before assessing risk, these four hazards were modelled using GIS and overlaid with a model of population distribution in order to extract human exposure. Human vulnerability was measured by crossing exposure with selected socio-economic parameters. The model evaluates to what extent observed past losses are related to population exposure and vulnerability. Results reveal that human vulnerability is mostly linked with country development level and environmental quality. A classification of countries is provided, as well as recommendations on data improvement for future use of the model.