Climate volatility deepens poverty vulnerability in developing countries

TLDR

Extreme climate events threaten poverty in developing countries by reducing agricultural productivity and raising staple food prices, and as their frequency and intensity change, policymakers need to identify the most vulnerable countries and groups. The study aims to evaluate how climate volatility affects poverty among seven socio‑economic groups in 16 developing countries. The authors employ a novel economic‑climate analysis framework to assess these impacts. Extremes under present climate volatility increase poverty across the sample, especially in Bangladesh, Mexico, Indonesia, and Africa, with urban wage earners most vulnerable, and global warming further exacerbates poverty vulnerability in many nations.

Abstract

Extreme climate events could influence poverty by affecting agricultural productivity and raising prices of staple foods that are important to poor households in developing countries. With the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events predicted to change in the future, informed policy design and analysis requires an understanding of which countries and groups are going to be most vulnerable to increasing poverty. Using a novel economic-climate analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of climate volatility for seven socio-economic groups in 16 developing countries. We find that extremes under present climate volatility increase poverty across our developing country sample—particularly in Bangladesh, Mexico, Indonesia, and Africa—with urban wage earners the most vulnerable group. We also find that global warming exacerbates poverty vulnerability in many nations.