Reasoning difficulty in analytical activity

Abstract

We review the consensus of expert opinion concerning the psychology of intelligence analysis, as a form of critical thinking. This consensus details a number of ways in which the cognitive work is difficult. Many senior analysts have commented upon the requirements of intelligence analysis – the reasoning traps to which novices fall victim, and the required knowledge and skills of experts. There remain gaps in our understanding, not just because the research is classified. There simply has not been that much systematic research. If the empirical base were broadened, headway might be made in training and techniques to help analysts cope with difficulty. We hope that this article contributes by presenting an overview and rationale for empirical study of the cognitive ergonomics of intelligence analysis.