System Dynamics Modeling of Reservoir Operations for Flood Management

TLDR

There is a strong need for simulation techniques that realistically model complex dynamic systems while enabling end‑user involvement to build confidence in the modeling process. The study presents system dynamics—a feedback‑based, object‑oriented simulation approach—for modeling reservoir operations. The approach is applied to the Shellmouth reservoir on the Assiniboine River, where operating rules for high‑flow years are developed, alternative rules are explored by adjusting storage allocation and outflows, a gated spillway is simulated, and sensitivity analysis is performed on initial reservoir levels and outflows. The method delivers faster model development, increased user trust, facilitates group development and effective communication, and its ease of modification and sensitivity analysis make it more attractive than traditional systems analysis techniques for reservoir operations.

Abstract

There exists a strong need to explore simulation techniques that not only represent complex dynamic systems in a realistic way but also allow the involvement of end users in model development to increase their confidence in the modeling process. System dynamics, a feedback-based object-oriented simulation approach, is presented for modeling reservoir operations. The increased speed of model development, the trust developed in the model due to user participation, the possibility of group model development, and the effective communication of model results are main strengths of this approach. The ease of model modification in response to changes in the system and the ability to perform sensitivity analysis make this approach more attractive compared with systems analysis techniques for modeling reservoir operations. The proposed approach is applied to the Shellmouth reservoir on the Assiniboine River in Canada. Operating rules are developed for high flow/flood years to minimize flooding. Alternative operating rules are explored by changing reservoir storage allocation and reservoir outflows. Impacts on the flood management capacity of the reservoir are investigated by simulating a gated spillway in addition to an existing unregulated spillway. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the reservoir levels at the start of the flood season and the outflow from the reservoir.