Using Structured Events to Predict Stock Price Movement: An Empirical Investigation

Abstract

It has been shown that news events influence the trends of stock price movements. However, previous work on news-driven stock market prediction rely on shallow features (such as bags-of-words, named entities and noun phrases), which do not capture structured entity-relation information, and hence cannot represent complete and exact events. Recent advances in Open Information Extraction (Open IE) techniques enable the extraction of structured events from web-scale data. We propose to adapt Open IE technology for event-based stock price movement prediction, extracting structured events from large-scale public news without manual efforts. Both linear and nonlinear models are employed to empirically investigate the hidden and complex relationships between events and the stock market. Largescale experiments show that the accuracy of S&P 500 index prediction is 60%, and that of individual stock prediction can be over 70%. Our event-based system outperforms bags-of-words-based baselines, and previously reported systems trained on S&P 500 stock historical data.