Forecasting Peak Demand for an Electric Utility with a Hybrid Exponential Model

Abstract

The paper discusses forecasting peak load demand, one day in advance, for an electric utility, but its main purpose is to illustrate the combination of the exponential adaptation principle with modified rules-of-thumb being successfully used by the electric company. The results indicate that although the company is already doing a good forecasting job, the hybrid exponential model, in simplest form, does even better, although it uses only a portion of the data that is available and used by the company.