Preventive Choices: Organizations' Heuristics, Decision Processes and Catastrophic Risks

Abstract

Organizational decision processes and criteria for making choices about reducing the chances of catastrophic accidents are examined in six case studies of large chemical firms. The processes and heuristics observed are not consistent with the compensatory decision rules presumed by strict liability laws. They are consistent with satisficing, ambiguity management, and some aspects of threat‐rigidity behaviours observed in other arenas of organization studies. They are also consistent with psychological findings about how individuals make decisions about low‐probability catastrophe risks. The heuristics may derive in part from anticipated accountability to outsiders and higher managers. They may lead to ‘too much’ attention to some catastrophe risks, ‘too little’ to others.