A gravity model analysis of international migration to North America

TLDR

The study investigates how political, economic, and demographic factors shape migration flows to North America. A modified gravity model incorporating immigration regulations and country characteristics is estimated using 1,540 observations of migration flows from 70 countries to Canada and the USA between 1976 and 1986. The analysis shows that origin country population and destination country income are key determinants, with populous Asian and Latin American regions contributing most immigrants, while political and civil restrictions in origin countries significantly reduce migration to North America.

Abstract

This study examines the influence of political, economic and demographic factors on the size and composition of migration flows to North America. A modified gravity model is specified and adjusted to include immigration regulations and characteristics specific to the origin and destination countries. For empirical test of the model, the time period of study is from 1976–1986, and 70 countries are covered for a total of 1540 observations of migration flows to Canada and the USA. The results reveal that the population of origin countries and the income of destination countries are two major determinants of migration to North America. High population areas of Asia and Latin America provided a large share of the immigrants. Domestic restrictions on political and civil freedom in origin countries are found to significantly impair migration to North America.