International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles

Abstract

We contrast properties of real quantities with those of price levels and stocks of money for ten countries over the last century. Although the magnitude of output fluctuations has varied across countries and periods, relations among real quantities have been remarkably uniform. Properties of price levels, however, exhibit striking differences between periods. Inflation rates are more persistent after World War II than before, and price level fluctuations are typically procyclical before World War II, countercyclical afterward. Fluctuations in money are less highly correlated with output in the postwar period, but are no more persistent than in early periods.