Forecasting Crime Using the ARIMA Model

Abstract

In this paper, time series model of ARIMA is used to make short-term forecasting of property crime for one city of China. With the given data of property crime for 50 weeks, an ARIMA model is determined and the crime amount of 1 week ahead is predicted. The modelpsilas fitting and forecasting results are compared with the SES and HES. It is shown that the ARIMA model has higher fitting and forecasting accuracy than exponential smoothing. This work will be helpful for the local police stations and municipal governments in decision making and crime suppression.