Perioperative CA19-9 Levels Can Predict Stage and Survival in Patients With Resectable Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

TLDR

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma prognosis is stratified by various prognostic factors. The study aimed to assess whether preoperative CA19‑9 levels and their perioperative changes predict disease stage and overall survival in resectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma. A cohort of 176 patients with bilirubin <2 mg/dL underwent pre‑ and postoperative CA19‑9 measurement; survival was modeled from the first postoperative CA19‑9 using a multivariate failure‑time model incorporating clinical, operative, pathologic, and adjuvant variables. Higher preoperative CA19‑9 levels were associated with advanced nodal and T stage, and both a postoperative decrease and a postoperative CA19‑9 <200 U/mL independently predicted better survival, with actuarial 1‑, 3‑, and 5‑year rates of 70 %, 36 %, and 30 %.

Abstract

Different prognostic factors stratify patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma. The purpose of this study was to determine whether preoperative CA19-9 levels can predict stage of disease or survival and whether a change in preoperative to postoperative CA19-9 or the postoperative CA19-9 predicts overall survival.Four hundred twenty-four consecutive patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma underwent resection between January 1, 1985 and January 1, 2004. Of the patients with a bilirubin less than 2 mg/dL, 176 had preoperative CA19-9 values, and 111 had pre- and postoperative CA19-9 values. Survival was measured from the first postoperative CA19-9 level measured (median, 39 days) until death or last follow-up. A multivariate failure time model was fit using clinical, operative, pathologic, and adjuvant treatment characteristics, and a categorization was defined by the values and changes in CA19-9 before and after surgery.Of the 176 patients, 128 (73%) had T3 lesions, and 99 (56%) had N1 disease; 138 patients (78%) underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy. Median preoperative CA19-9 levels were lower in N0 patients compared with patients with positive nodes (nine v 164 U/mL, respectively; nonparametric P = .06) and in T1/T2 patients versus T3 patients (41 v 162 U/mL, respectively; P = .03). Median follow-up time (n = 111) was 1.8 years (range, 1 to 12.9 years), with overall actuarial 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates of 70%, 36%, and 30%, respectively. Significant predictors of survival on multivariate analysis included a decrease in CA19-9 (P = .0005), negative lymph nodes (P = .001), lower T stage (P = .0008), and postoperative CA19-9 less than 200 U/mL (P = .0007).In patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma, preoperative CA19-9 correlates with stage of disease. Both a postoperative decrease in CA19-9 and a postoperative CA19-9 value of less than 200 U/mL are strong independent predictors of survival, even after adjusting for stage. CA19-9 levels should be included in a patient's perioperative care and should be considered for prognostic nomograms.