Hempel's Paradox and Wason's Selection Task: Logical and Psychological Puzzles of Confirmation

Abstract

Abstract Hempel's paradox of the ravens has to do with the question of what constitutes confirmation from a logical point of view; Wason's selection task has been used extensively to investigate how people go about attempting to confirm or disconfirm conditional claims. This paper presents an argument that the paradox is resolved, and that people's typical performance in the selection task can be explained, by consideration of what constitutes an effective strategy for seeking evidence of the tenability of universal or conditional claims in everyday life.