China: Emissions pattern of the world leader in CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel consumption and cement production

TLDR

Release of CO₂ from fossil fuel combustion and cement manufacture is the primary anthropogenic driver of climate change, and until 2006 the United States was the largest national source. The study aims to present China’s seasonal and spatial CO₂ emission patterns, sectoral breakdowns, and discuss the implications of its new leading position for international climate agreements. The authors analyze seasonal and spatial CO₂ emission data in China and provide a sectoral breakdown. China became the largest national CO₂ emitter in 2006, with its annual emission rate more than doubling and surpassing the United States, though uncertainties of 15–20 % for China and 3–5 % for the US remain.

Abstract

Release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from fossil fuel combustion and cement manufacture is the primary anthropogenic driver of climate change. Our best estimate is that China became the largest national source of CO 2 emissions during 2006. Previously, the United States (US) had occupied that position. However, the annual emission rate in the US has remained relatively stable between 2001–2006 while the emission rate in China has more than doubled, apparently eclipsing that of the US in late 2006. Here we present the seasonal and spatial pattern of CO 2 emissions in China, as well as the sectoral breakdown of emissions. Though our best point estimate places China in the lead position in terms of CO 2 emissions, we qualify this statement in a discussion of the uncertainty in the underlying data (3–5% for the US; 15–20% for China). Finally, we comment briefly on the implications of China's new position with respect to international agreements to mitigate climate change.