Prediction of delirium after cardiac surgery and the use of a risk checklist

Abstract

The incidence of delirium was 17.3%. A higher Euroscore, but not a disturbance in electrolytes, was confirmed as a predictor of postoperative delirium. Based on this study, a new risk model was constructed with the following risk factors: a higher Euroscore, older age (≥70 years), cognitive impairment, number of comorbidities, history of delirium, alcohol use and type of surgery. When using a probability of delirium of 20%, as predicted by the model, the sensitivity was 80.8% and the specificity 82.2%. The area under the curve was 0.89. With the revised delirium risk checklist, including seven new risk factors, patients with an increased risk of developing delirium following cardiac surgery could be identified more accurately.