Publication Selection Bias in Minimum‐Wage Research? A Meta‐Regression Analysis

TLDR

Card and Krueger’s meta‑analysis of minimum‑wage employment effects challenged theory but mistakenly conflated publication selection bias with a lack of true effects. The study applies advanced meta‑analysis techniques to 64 U.S. minimum‑wage studies to confirm Card and Krueger’s conclusions. The authors use updated meta‑analysis methods on 64 studies to reassess minimum‑wage employment effects.

Abstract

Abstract Card and Krueger's meta‐analysis of the employment effects of minimum wages challenged existing theory. Unfortunately, their meta‐analysis confused publication selection with the absence of a genuine empirical effect. We apply recently developed meta‐analysis methods to 64 US minimum‐wage studies and corroborate that Card and Krueger's findings were nevertheless correct. The minimum‐wage effects literature is contaminated by publication selection bias, which we estimate to be slightly larger than the average reported minimum‐wage effect. Once this publication selection is corrected, little or no evidence of a negative association between minimum wages and employment remains.