An initial model fo complex dynamics in electric power system blackouts

TLDR

The model describes opposing forces conjectured to cause self‑organized criticality in power system blackouts. The study defines a model to describe the evolution of long series of electric power transmission system blackouts and to investigate the complex dynamics of the resulting dynamic equilibrium. The model couples a slow time scale of load growth versus system capacity growth with a fast time scale of cascading line overloads and outages, where load growth triggers outages that in turn increase capacity, and this dynamic equilibrium is illustrated using initial results from the 73‑bus IEEE reliability test system. The model shows that opposing forces produce a dynamic equilibrium yielding blackouts of all sizes, exhibits a Markov property, and is illustrated with initial results from the 73‑bus IEEE reliability test system.

Abstract

We define a model for the evolution of a long series of electric power transmission system blackouts. The model describes opposing forces, which have been conjectured to cause self-organized criticality in power system blackouts. There is a slow time scale representing the opposing forces of load growth and growth in system capacity and a fast time scale representing cascading line overloads and outages. The time scales are coupled: load growth leads to outages and outages lead to increased system capacity. The opposing forces result in a dynamic equilibrium in which blackouts of all sizes occur. The model is a means to study the complex dynamics of this dynamic equilibrium. The Markov property of the model is briefly discussed. The model dynamic equilibrium is illustrated using initial results from the 73-bus IEEE reliability test system.