Limited Expectations? How 14–16-Year-Old Norwegians in Poor Families Look at Their Future

Abstract

Using representative survey data from the municipality of Oslo, capital of Norway, this article examines expectations about the future among 14–16-year-olds in relatively poor families. Despite Norway’s universalistic welfare policies and a period of growing economic prosperity prior to the 2006 survey, the article reveals that adolescents in poor families are more likely than other adolescents to anticipate unemployment and less often expect to own a home. Poor adolescents are also less likely to expect future happiness. A considerable portion of poor adolescents have a immigrant background, but the analyses show a non-trivial negative effect of living in a poor family even when controlling for this variable. In addition, the analyses investigate the role of selected mediating factors, namely, low academic achievement, self-perceived unpopularity among peers and attending a school with a relatively high share of poor adolescents. Low academic achievement and perceived unpopularity explain some of the relationship between poverty and low expectations, whereas school milieu has less effect.