Lifetime Risks of Hip, Colles', or Vertebral Fracture and Coronary Heart Disease Among White Postmenopausal Women

TLDR

Lifetime risk provides a useful way to compare the risk of hip, Colles', vertebral fractures, coronary heart disease, and certain cancers in postmenopausal women. We used population‑based data to estimate a woman's lifetime risk of hip, Colles', or vertebral fracture and her risk of dying of coronary heart disease. A 50‑year‑old white woman has a 16% risk of hip fracture, 15% of Colles' fracture, 32% of vertebral fracture, and a 31% risk of dying from coronary heart disease—about ten times higher than her risk of dying from hip fracture or breast cancer, and higher than her risk of breast or endometrial cancer. Arch Intern Med.

Abstract

• Lifetime risk is a useful way to estimate and compare the risk of various conditions. Hip fractures, Colles' fractures, and coronary heart disease, and breast and endometrial cancers are important conditions in postmenopausal women that might be influenced by the use of hormone replacement therapy. We used population-based data to estimate a woman's lifetime risk of suffering a hip, Colles', or vertebral fracture and her risk of dying of coronary heart disease. A 50-year-old white woman has a 16% risk of suffering a hip fracture, a 15% risk of suffering a Colles' fracture, and a 32% risk of suffering a vertebral fracture during her remaining lifetime. These risks exceed her risk of developing breast or endometrial cancer. She has a 31% risk of dying of coronary heart disease, which is about 10 times greater than her risk of dying of hip fractures or breast cancer. These lifetime risks provide a useful description of the comparative risks of conditions that might be influenced by postmenopausal hormone therapy. (<i>Arch Intern Med.</i>1989;149:2445-2448)