Evaluating cluster alarms: a space-time scan statistic and brain cancer in Los Alamos, New Mexico.

TLDR

The study introduces a space‑time scan statistic for evaluating cluster alarms and applies it to a recent brain‑cancer cluster alarm in Los Alamos, NM. The method uses a space‑time scan statistic that adjusts for preselection bias, multiple testing, confounders, and time trends. The analysis found no statistically significant excess of brain cancer in Los Alamos, but demonstrated that the space‑time scan statistic is a useful screening tool to distinguish likely chance clusters from those warranting further study.

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: This article presents a space-time scan statistic, useful for evaluating space-time cluster alarms, and illustrates the method on a recent brain cancer cluster alarms in Los Alamos, NM. METHODS: The space-time scan statistic accounts for the preselection bias and multiple testing inherent in a cluster alarm. METHODOLOGY: The space-time scan statistic accounts for the preselection bias and multiple testing inherent in a cluster alarm. Confounders and time trends can be adjusted for. RESULTS: The observed excess of brain cancer in Los Alamos was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: The space-time scan statistic is useful as a screening tool for evaluating which cluster alarms merit further investigation and which clusters are probably chance occurrences.