DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT WHEN CREDIT MARKETS ARE IMPERFECT

Abstract

This paper argues that foreign direct investment (FDI) may increase the vulnerability to capital flow shocks of economies with credit market imperfections. Because of worse access to financial markets, wages in domestic firms carry higher default risk than wages in foreign ones. This alters the domestic wage composition and the subsequent wealth distribution. When credit markets are imperfect, the wealth distribution typically determines an economy's growth potential in autarky; hence, high exposure to FDI may significantly impede the capability to recover from sudden withdrawals of foreign capital. This appears consistent with a first glance at empirical evidence on durations of output recovery after systemic sudden stops.