Methods For Assessing Reliability Growth Potential

Abstract

The reliability growth potential for a system design is defined as the maximum system reliability that can be achieved for a particular management strategy. The management strategy determines which failure modes will or will not be fixed and the effectiveness of the fixes that are incorporated. In this paper we develop a practical methodology for estimating the growth potential for a system based on limited development testing data. In addition, confidence interval procedures associated with the realism of the requirement relative to the growth potential are discussed. These procedures are useful for evaluating the management strategy for a system and assessing the likelihood of attain ing the reliability objectives. In addition, the methods are useful for trade-off studies establishing a management strategy early in a development program. Numerical examples are given in the paper illustrating the application of these procedures.