Time-of-Day Modeling in a Tour-Based Context

Abstract

Insights into the time-of-day preferences of individuals are crucial for accurately quantifying vehicle emissions and for understanding time-shifting behavior in response to traffic congestion and road pricing. Most urban models account for travel demand by time of day by using fixed factors or by incorporating the choice among aggregate time periods such as a.m., p.m., and off-peak. These methods are inadequate for examining traveler response to congestion mitigation strategies. To address some of these concerns, FHWA recently conducted a research project to develop innovative methods of modeling travel by time of day. This paper extends the FHWA methodology to the Tel Aviv tour-based model system that Cambridge Systematics is currently developing for Israel's Ministry of Transport. The purpose of this paper is threefold: first, it discusses the modeling framework used in Tel Aviv; second, it describes the data inputs required for modeling time-of-day decisions; and finally, it describes the model estimation procedure and empirical results from Tel Aviv. The main features of the modeling approach include using half-hour time intervals, accounting for schedule delay in the absence of desired arrival and departure time data, and modeling the 24-h cycle. This paper serves as a proof of concept for the FHWA methodology and demonstrates that using the commonly available household survey data and some basic level-of-service data makes it possible to develop time-of-day models that are more detailed and better suited for policy testing.