The car industry and the blow-out of the hydrogen hype

TLDR

The hydrogen hype of the past decade has largely been eclipsed by the electric vehicle boom, illustrating how technological hype can attract funding yet also risk disappointment when expectations are unmet. This paper investigates how the car industry has generated and managed the hydrogen hype. The study examines the industry's prototyping activities and public statements about market entry to assess its role. The analysis shows that the industry has inflated the hype, especially through optimistic public statements on market release after the millennium, and that it strategically alternates between highly optimistic and modest claims to serve its interests.

Abstract

The hydrogen hype of the last decade has passed and it is now seemingly substituted by the electric vehicle hype. A technological hype can have both positive as well as negative consequences. On the one hand it attracts sponsors for technology development but on the other hand the high expectations might result in disappointment and subsequent withdrawal of the sponsors. In this paper I ask the question to what extent the car industry has created the hype and how it has done so. The industry’s role is studied through their prototyping activities and accompanying statements on market entry. I conclude that the car industry has indeed inflated the hype, especially through its public statements on market release after the turn of the millennium. Furthermore, the industry has shown a double repertoire of both highly optimistic and more modest statements. From this I take that statements are used deliberately to serve the industry’s interests whenever needed. Without neglecting the positive outcomes of hype, public and private funding for R&D efforts, more modest promises could serve the development of sustainable mobility better.