Malaria and Mortality

Abstract

Abstract Controversy has arisen concerning the extent near eradication of malaria affects mortality in tropical countries. Guesses of malaria's contribution to the classic fall in mortality in post-war Sri Lanka have varied from zero to 100 percent, while more serious estimates range from 21 percent (Gray 1974) to 48 percent (Newman 1965, 1970). In this article a general model is devised in which the previous estimating equations may be embedded. The Box-Cox approach to nonlinear regression analysis is then used to estimate close approximations to this model. The method yields a “best” estimate of 44 percent but also yields fairly wide margins of error.