The Risk of Severe Postoperative Pain: Modification and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Rule

Abstract

A previously developed prediction rule to predict severe postoperative pain was modified to allow use in both inpatients and outpatients. By validating the rule in patients who underwent surgery several years later in another hospital, it was shown that the rule could be generalized in time and place. We demonstrated that, instead of deriving new prediction rules for new populations, a simple adjustment may be enough to recalibrate prediction rules for new populations. This is in line with the perception that external validation and updating of prediction rules is a continuing and multistage process.