Economic Systems Research · 2012 · 236 citations · 25 references
PlanningBusiness EconomicsEconomicsEconometricsEnvironmental EconomicsPort EngineeringEconomic ResilienceInfrastructure ResilienceInput-output AnalysisInterdependency AnalysisPort PolicyResilience AssessmentDisruption Impact AnalysisExpert JudgmentExpert Judgment EstimationInput-output ModelingMulti-regional Input-output AnalysisPort ResilienceRegional Input-output AnalysisSupply-driven Input-output Models
This paper develops a methodology for the estimation of the total economic consequences of a seaport disruption, factoring in the major types of resilience. The foundation of the methodology is a combination of demand-driven and supply-driven input–output analyses. Resilience is included through a series of ad hoc adjustments based on various formal models and expert judgment. Moreover, we have designed the methodology in a manner that overcomes the major shortcomings of the supply-driven approach. We apply the methodology to a 90-day disruption at the twin seaports of Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas, which is a major port area that includes a petrochemical manufacturing complex. We find that regional gross output could decline by as much as $13 billion at the port region level, but that resilience can reduce these impacts by nearly 70%.
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