Probabilistic Assessment of the Lifetime of Low-Earth-Orbit Spacecraft: Uncertainty Characterization

Abstract

Orbital lifetime estimation is a problem of great timeliness and importance in astrodynamics. In view of the stochastic nature of the thermosphere and of the complexity of drag modeling, any deterministic assessment of orbital lifetime is likely to be bound to failure. This is why the present paper performs uncertainty quantification of satellite orbital lifetime estimation. Specifically, this paper focuses on the probabilistic characterization of the dominant sources of uncertainty inherent to low-altitude satellites. Uncertainties in the initial state of the satellite and in the atmospheric drag force, as well as uncertainties introduced by modeling limitations associated with atmospheric density models, are considered. Mathematical statistics methods, in conjunction with mechanical modeling considerations, are used to infer the probabilistic characterization of these uncertainties from experimental data and atmospheric density models. This characterization step facilitates the application of uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis methods, which in turn allows gaining insight into the impact that these uncertainties have on the orbital lifetime. The proposed developments are illustrated using one CubeSat of the QB50 constellation.