The future of water resources systems analysis: Toward a scientific framework for sustainable water management

TLDR

Water resources systems analysis has evolved from the Harvard Water Program into a broad field addressing scarcity, climate change, and competing objectives, yet remains under‑recognized academically and limited by localized findings. The paper argues that the field must reorient itself as a predictive science of water resources to meet the complex, interdependent, and global challenges facing governments, industry, and the public. Doing so promotes scientific credibility, provides understanding of the state of water resources, and furnishes a basis for predicting the impacts of water choices.

Abstract

Abstract This paper presents a short history of water resources systems analysis from its beginnings in the Harvard Water Program, through its continuing evolution toward a general field of water resources systems science. Current systems analysis practice is widespread and addresses the most challenging water issues of our times, including water scarcity and drought, climate change, providing water for food and energy production, decision making amid competing objectives, and bringing economic incentives to bear on water use. The emergence of public recognition and concern for the state of water resources provides an opportune moment for the field to reorient to meet the complex, interdependent, interdisciplinary, and global nature of today's water challenges. At present, water resources systems analysis is limited by low scientific and academic visibility relative to its influence in practice and bridled by localized findings that are difficult to generalize. The evident success of water resource systems analysis in practice (which is set out in this paper) needs in future to be strengthened by substantiating the field as the science of water resources that seeks to predict the water resources variables and outcomes that are important to governments, industries, and the public the world over. Doing so promotes the scientific credibility of the field, provides understanding of the state of water resources and furnishes the basis for predicting the impacts of our water choices.