Probabilistic Finite Elements With Dynamic Limit Bounds; A Case Study: 17th Street Flood Wall, New Orleans

Abstract

The probabilistic approach provides a better understanding of failure mechanisms and occurrence probabilities as well as consequences of failure. Besides, main advantages of the probabilistic design in comparison with the deterministic design are: a more careful, more cost effective, and more reliable design of infrastructures. In the present study a new probabilistic approach is applied to the 17th Street Flood Wall, and its probability of failure under hurricane hazard, considering multiple failure mechanisms is assessed. The Monte Carlo (MC) simulation technique coupled with dynamic limit bounds (DLB) integrated with finite element approach is used. The performance of DLB and MC are compared; the results present that DLB can be efficiently applied in the process of risk and safety evaluation of dikes and flood defenses.