Optimal smoothing for trend removal in short term electricity demand forecasting

Abstract

Changes to the electricity supply industry, in particular the progress towards deregulation, have prompted an increased interest in short-term electricity demand forecasting. Trend removal has been identified as a key element in forecasting, and perhaps the area that can most benefit from the application of advanced time series analysis. A new approach to trend removal is presented based on fixed interval, or optimal, smoothing techiques. Forecasts derived in this way are compared with more conventional approaches. Preliminary results indicate the new method to be promising and deserving of further development.