Seasonal Runoff Forecasting Using Precipitation from Meteorological Data Assimilation Systems

Abstract

In semiarid mountainous regions such as central Asia, runoff from snowmelt often represents the dominant contribution to river flow and freshwater supply during the dry season. The estimation of snow accumulation during the preceding seasons then provides a key to seasonal runoff forecasting with lead times of a few months, and it requires appropriate coverage with surface precipitation and/or snow water equivalent observations. This study tests whether the lack of conventional precipitation and snow observations can be overcome by using model-based precipitation estimates from meteorological data assimilation systems.