The impact of European market changes on employment in the Kenyan horticulture sector

Abstract

Abstract In Kenya, exports of fresh vegetables have grown rapidly in the past decade, but the employment impact of this business has been changing as a result of market conditions in the major export destination, the United Kingdom. Continued rapid growth in overall exports, an increase in post‐harvest processing, a switch from smallholder production to exporters' own plantations, and price shocks such as tariff changes and shifts in transport costs. A simulation exercise demonstrates that the positive impact on employment of continued export growth and increased post‐harvest processing is much greater than any likely reduction in employment resulting from the shift away from smallholder production. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.